8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. “@cjoye It seems a bit silly to me that an actor, doing an advert, with a script, on the television, should suddenly become a financial commentator on cryptocurrencies. First miss on EPS since IPO, I think. This will bring the RBA much closer to global central banks like BoE at 4. afr. States need fiscal revolution to avoid debt bomb - our analysis on NSW and Victoria. The stunning incident occurred in the waters off Werri Beach in New South Wales on Sunday and was captured on video. Massive portion of the population realising they are not going to achieve an acceptable basic standard of living. “@bluntman_eth @Tombeecon @cjoye So they just entered the real estate market. then the printing starts again leading to further dilution of currency . “Good morning!”In this conversation. 2 days ago. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. 6%mom) prices led the increase. Prepare for equities and property pain. I doubt the rise over the previous Q was sustainable, given the reduction in borrowing power. In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye plenty of illiquidity in the big super funds non-listed assets. 0% (0. No wonder RBA is slowing down. 1%. @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. au “GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). 30% drop wipes out 40% of gains! Its so bad REINZ has taken down old reports!”“@ddtraderr @cjoye Ummmm Yes they can refinance however this is happening because interest rates are rising ⬆️⬆️⬆️ They may be able to refinance if they paid off enough, and if the properties have appreciated in value That’s a few “ifs” in there Overall, the situation is grim at beset”“3x crypto banks now dead: Silvergate; Silicon Valley; and Signature. Rebounding asset prices would keep inflation - and rates - higher for longer. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. . Quote Tweet. It would not suprise me if the government introduces 'targeted support' which ends up pumping the market for a…”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. See charts below for the latest daily index data for Syd/Melb @cjoye banks are throwing everything to keep the arrears off the books, giving repayment holidays, turning loans into 30-40 year mortgages interest free, & CBA anyone ahead on their loan schedule are getting repayment discounts! @cjoye I think you’re missing a factor from your interest rate property price calculator, how many investors were using a rising market to facilitate/service their loans, buy new properties& hide some properties under company trusts to hide their debt positions. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. )”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3:30 AM · May 20, 2022 · Twitter Web App. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. What’s the result?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye. Captain Slapstick AC AO AM OAM AK @CaptSlapstick · 6h. @cjoye Aug 6, 2022 22pc and back in 2020 - the issue with Ukraine is there is very limited data on it as a country statistically because it was only created in the early 1990s. 10:21 PM · Jul 8, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone. . In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…”@cjoye. 16 May 2023 00:02:27“Aussie house prices fall another >1% in November, total loss now 7. christopher joye on Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”“Yep. “Morning!” We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Our globally unique War Lab put 74% probability on military conflict between China/Taiwan and a 45% chance of US-China conflict erupting over next decade based on data up to 2020. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. May 15, 2023 - 9:29AM. 1. ALT. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday mornings, I will be buried in one. S&P Reports Australian Home Loan Arrears Rose In December: S&P's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages increased in December to 0. 2B cash! @cjoye Aussie house prices now correcting fast as rates rise, led by Sydney and Melbourne: RBA will struggle to lift past 1. Where did you get 20% from?”RBA governor Phil Lowe said today that for Aussie inflation to hit its 2-3% target, wages can only grow at circa 3. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2%. . See new TweetsNothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed everMassive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersAussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data fromWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Last Friday was a normal day for us: we did about $450m of trades, and I actively directed ~$300m of them. “The “family finances vs a year ago” sub-index dropped 8% in February, to 62. com. 9. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 76% from 0. Likes. ConversationSee new Tweets. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Just think your narrow focus on interest rates as the main driver of house prices and that prices will fall 30% is consistent with many of you other views. …”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. ” christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. Sign up“@cjoye People keep in mind the huge upswing the housing market had pre covid. 85% to 4. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App@cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@ChandAshok @cjoye Totally agree re government mistakes but struggle to understand why ‘independent organisations’ have the power to dial up the misery of Australians in the form of unemployment and increased costs of lending. 9:26 PM · Aug 15, 2022 · Twitter Web App. In this conversation. Fantastic lunch event with Chris Joye @cjoye and Coolibah Capital today in Perth. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Both are inflationary to housing and do nothing to address affordability. 6% for one year but if taken from the peak in Sept 21 its -30% plus. 5%, the…. 92. “The great regime change: growth and cheap money are dead of risky assets ‘living in a parallel universe’ - A recession may be precisely the jolt lackadaisical Millennials require to lift their game. . Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Huobi announced $18. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. Australian money is rushing out of the crypto exchange, and customers are willing to accept a big haircut to cash out their holdings. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. See new Tweets. True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. Quote Tweet. “@cjoye Step forward for transparency, but still doesn’t stop more/different things being said in other forums (or by other RBA officials). @cjoye. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. 7%; Brisb off 1. May 2. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Aussie housing collapse spreads as Brisbane joins the Sydney and Melbourne crash bit. 7% on 376 auctions (@corelogicau) vs 49. Hard to start a business or buy your first home if you can’t borrow money anywhere”“Aussie house prices moving sideways in February month to date, which is interesting. 1%, bringing total decline to 6. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. Sign upDay of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. com. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. "It's global cyber war out there". A 30year investment for most. . 25pc and possibly beyond, also raising risk RBA hikes past 3. RT @CommSec: In our latest Executive Series interview we sat down with @cjoye from Coolabah Capital to chat about wide range of issues including recent collapse of. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle… @cjoye A tiny, single day drop in Aussie house prices evidenced in the CoreLogic daily data---is it pure noise or something more substantive as tighter policy grips? corelogic. Conversation“@cjoye who would have thought lending money to a government with a printing press that practically can't default would result in potentially the 2nd largest bank collapse in US history 😄”In this conversation. Sign up“@JohnQuiggin @cjoye We're here because Reagan & Thatcher's neoliberal agenda of crushing unions by offshoring manufacturing to China (& continued by Clinton & Blair) . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. In this conversation. Sitting on $6. In this conversation. Drone pilot Christopher Joye, who captured the footage, said: "Swimmers would not believe there was a. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 04 Jun 2023 22:01:37We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. estimates will revise down a bit. @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 7% in 11 days of Aug); Melb down 3. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. Tech party is over as Canva and Atlassian get tough, and perks dry up“Does any seriously believe house prices will not fall after the RBA cutting the cash rate from 1. According to your own chart the annualized figure for Sydney is approx 11-12%. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09“RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…”christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. @cjoye. Games fiasco will leave business shaking its head at Victorian farce. Log in What does the Credit Suisse bail-in of its hybrids mean for Aussie bank hybrids? @cjoye Back in 2017 I wrote about a small number of Tier 2 and AT1 structures from Genworth + ME Bank that did not convert to equity (ie, went straight to write-off) and which could invert the capital structure hierarchy - predicting a situation where shareholders would push for AT1 or T2 write-offs to minimise their losses, just as happened. “@cjoye Well this RBA info has finally caught up with Alan Kohler I photo’d the tv last yr & kept the dates visible I added words he was saying to the slides Check out the dates! August & October LAST YEAR!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will. The bears are gonna start running for the hills when they see wolverine chasing em”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. Sydney (+1. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change from entitled millennials who have never experienced high…. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Key takeaways * 15-20% peak to trough in Australian housing prices remains the view. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Considering the RBA's housing price model predicts some pretty major price falls if rates rise 1%, it would be interesting to see how falling real wages may potentially exacerbate that. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. 75% bonds or 5,6% annuity products without losing any skin to the middleman, market would be below 4,000 point instantly! Once BoJ st“Mortgage stress to rise as RBA flags risk of higher rates in. 18 Jul 2023 02:09:39. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be defenders of last resort of the great Australian credit fuelled housing bubble. 0%), Melbourne (-7. The quarterly pace of decline accelerated to. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSign up. Especially as pandemic funding measures end”House prices to get whacked by rates again: If the cash rate does indeed hit 4. *Potential for another RBA hiking cycle >4%. and @Johnkehoe23. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. Log in. ConversationSee new Tweets. au. Log in. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of underlying inflation based on a truncated monthly CPI. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . Log in. Sign upLog in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. @cjoye. @cjoye. Sign up“@mitch_dol @cjoye @TomInvesting This is the Jan REINZ HPI Index developed with our RBNZ. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. “Real interest rate hammer has yet to fall would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . 6%mom) prices led the increase. Logically can't happen. So presumably brought their first home. Your chart is pretty much 12 months already. Replying to. 6pc. Immigration is still big in Aus. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. Redirecting to /user/cjoye/. Even with yields down. We have unscrambled the letters cjoye (cejoy) to make a list of all the word combinations found in the popular word scramble. @TheKouk · Jul 8. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722 Embed Tweet. 2%. While all costs (interest, rates, land tax, utility, body corp, maintenance) are against investors, 2m deposit gives u 100k effortless money. “Pretty clear RBA has been spooked by house price collapse, which is only going to get worse”christopher joye on Twitter. “Morning!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It would not shock me for people in 2034 to be asking "is this the year Australian property prices finally see gains?". ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday. 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. 7%. 0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1:24 AM · Jul 9, 2023 · 10. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3. new Tweets. Team Talk: Cowboys 2023 overview, best 17, squad update. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. commodities are a grand idea #BTC“Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB up. & 50% are admin. “Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight “USDC 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB Sign up. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will be record housing crash, 100% triggered by rate hikes - it has only just started. macrobusiness. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. “ANZ's David Plank and Jack Chambers have today updated their RBA QE3 forecast to a potential program that could be as large as $189 billion, bringing them in line with Westpac's Bill Evans who is projecting a $150bn program for QE3 @Johnkehoe23 @ANZ_Newsroom @WestpacMacro”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Log inchristopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower. New RBA analysis shows that between 15% and 17% of all Aussie borrowers are likely to experience negative cash-flows as a result of rate hikes in the RBA's base-line and adverse scenarios“@KellyAlspals @cjoye ALD share price hasn't moved much, so either no productivity or wage-rate spiral imo. @cjoye/Twitter) Shark clamps onto diver's leg as blood and screams pour out in attack video. 2m are customer assets. 1% in 2020 drove Aussie houses prices 37% higher. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5% pa, or 2. ·. Drone operator Christopher Joye posted. Anecdote from my AFR column today: “For Australia’s inflation rate to subside, we will also need more productivity to rationalise the brisk rates of wage growth. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983. “@cjoye Mate, what's the go with this fund you run? You are doing a terrible job managing other people's money! By the way, #bitcoin was trading around $8. ”Log in. 04 May 2023 06:47:40Log in. Log in. Like. @cjoye RBA speech just published: almost 30% of Aussie borrowers will suffer a more than 40% increase in their mortgage repayments if the RBA lifts the cash rate by 300 basis points, though concludes everything will be ok in that event. The latest tweets from @cjoye christopher joye. Aug 16. “@TvcMike @cjoye tech/growth/risk assets, makes any real sense. afr. com. afr. You've reached your limit when it comes to tweeting about bitcoin being under $20k. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Our subs will likely need to contain the most serious expansionist ambitions of an India we haven't yet met in the 2040s”“Huge jump in Sydney auction clearance rate to 74. ”Log in. 28. Jerome Nugent-Smith. afr. NSW's interest bill will surge past $7 billion/yr according to Treasurer @dmookheyMLC. com. . 5% plus 1% productivity. ”“@Fuffalufaguz @cjoye I bought at top 23 year old fixed rate 14 percent price tanked was in negative equity for 10 years house needed totally renovated sold for same price after all interest bills and pound bought nearly half what it would everyone is conned by media having to have what everyone has”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. House price declines not likely to slow until RBA stops hiking. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign up Day of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. 5%, the Bank of Canada at 4. In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Interesting. christopher joye on Twitter. @cjoye The monthly CPI showed underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, tracking above the RBA’s forecast profile and placing pressure on the RBA to hike again in July, where its peers are confronting the same problem of it taking too long for inflation to return to target with much higher interest rates. In this conversation. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change. @cjoye. christopher joye on Twitter: "Credit Suisse trying to squeeze. Replying to. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upIn this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . this conversation. This is 70s. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. Well done. See new Tweetschristopher joye on Twitter: "RT @eurekareport: On Talking Finance this week with @AlanKohler: central banks face a longer, harder task to get inflation down; dodging an Australian recession; an inflationary budget & opposition in the opposition ft. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Aussie house prices fell in 2022 by their largest margin since records began in 1980. Youre allowed to tweet at new cycle-low milestones only. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. ”While lots of people talk about the risk of war without actually understanding the odds, new research sheds light on the probability of major power conflict. 1. 85% to 4. Why are they silent on the stock NFLX performance???”“Westpac/MI Australian Consumer Confidence now lower than GFC levels--and aside from March 2020, the lowest since 1990. au. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Strong academic credentials, but limited real world experience. . “@cjoye Japan took over 10 years from peak to 'bottom' with a similar size bubble. 5k USD when you started this fund in May 2020. It's very unstable at the street level. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye was one of the few to go against this IIRC. ”“With an inflation-targeting central bank, cash is actually one of your best inflation hedges”See new Tweets. ↑ Joye, Christopher. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Both of which disproportionately affect the bottom 50% of households. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . . Log in. . ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App @cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. You actually charge people a fee for that performance?”“@KirilRuvinsky @cjoye People are away in Sydney, this Aussie day turned into a long weekend, my wife works in circular quay and there were 5 people on her floor at work! People are still spending and it appears that less people under 35 have a mortgage these days, rising unemployment is the only key”Imaging if mums&dads can directly access to 6. Interest rates have soared, but commercial property values have barely moved. House prices fell at slightly slower rate in Oct, with 5 city index from @corelogicau losing 1. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. Found. See new Tweets Nothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed ever Massive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. com. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). Lower bound of our 15-25pc forecast correction could be an optimistic outcome…”Log in. It'll work right up until the point it is discovered that debt outstrips M2 money by a factor of 10:1 . LNP for all its 'hawkishness' over China refused to develop onshore manufacturing for fear of unions. Replying to . Found. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. Sign upLog in. Prepare for equities and property pain - my analysis. “No strong view on NSW election other than that NSW Labor Treasurer Daniel Mookhey is the smartest and hardest working politician I have ever dealt with in my life @dmookheyMLC @ALeighMP” Well you called it when you said we could likely have another series of rate hikes after the pause @cjoye. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet the "material" upside surprise test Bullock set - despite every economist and the market saying it does. 8 per cent, it would mean that purchasing power has been eroded by a total of 33 per cent since the RBA kicked off this cycle in May last year. christopher joye on Twitter.